India's aviation industry could return to profitability in 2023-24 for the first time since the pandemic. The industry may pare aggregated net loss by 75-80 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to between Rs 3,500 crore and Rs 4,500 crore in 2022-23 (FY23), compared with Rs 17,500 crore of net losses in 2021-22 (FY22). A combination of recovery in passenger volumes and easing cost pressures due to stable fuel and foreign exchange (forex) costs could spark a turnaround. CRISIL says domestic and international passenger traffic recovered to 90 per cent and 98 per cent, respectively, of pre-pandemic traffic (2019-20, or FY20), in April-December 2022, compared with April-December 2019.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
Things are looking up for engineering firms and Siemens is likely to be one of the leading beneficiaries. Apart from the generic revival in activity, which is expected to continue through the 2023-24 financial year (FY24), the Budget has a strong infrastructure thrust, which works in Siemens' favour. The company reported a standalone Ebitda (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of Rs 550 crore (up 66 per cent year-on-year or YoY) in Q1FY23 (Siemens follows the October-September accounting year).
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
Investors who decide to enter medium to long-duration funds should be cognisant of the risk.
Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said describing India's recovery as 'K-shaped' was wrong as both rural and urban economies were recovering, albeit at different paces. Speaking to reporters at the Finance Ministry, Nageswaran said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth print for the recent October-December quarter (Q3FY23) will likely be revised upwards. "The notion of using the letter 'K' to denote urban and rural is somewhat wrong because it is almost as if one is growing and one is contracting. "I would say one segment's slope is more positive, and the other one slope is less positive but it is positive," Nageswaran said.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
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One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
'It will be best for investors to have a systematic investment plan in mid-cap and small-cap funds with a three-/five-year horizon.'
The dream-run in railway stocks may soon run out of steam, caution analysts. The rally, which has lasted nearly a year, may meet time-wise correction post the Union Budget announcements as investors begin scalping profits. "There is going to be a build-up in expectations for the sector from the Union Budget, which is still two-odd months away.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said India and China will account for half of the global economic growth in 2023, as the multilateral agency retained its growth forecast for Asia's third-largest economy for 2023-24 (FY24). "India remains a bright spot. Together with China, it will account for half of global growth this year, versus just a tenth for the US and euro area combined," the IMF said in its latest update to the biannual World Economic Outlook. Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 (FY23) to 6.1 per cent in 2023 (FY24) before picking up to 6.8 per cent in 2024 (FY25), the global lender said while citing "resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds".
Raamdeo Agrawal of Motilal Oswal Securities believes that the scope for surprises in the market in 2007 is limited; he expects 17-18% returns. Moreover, he says that there is no major concern at Sensex valuation of 17-18x.
2023 could be another volatile year for Indian equity markets, according to BofA. In a report, the brokerage pointed out that the Nifty50, at present, is trading at 20.7x against its long-term average of 18.8x one-year forward earnings of current Nifty constituents. Plus, India is trading at a 98 per cent premium to its emerging market (EM) peers against its long-term average of 45 per cent.
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Wall Street brokerage Bank of America Securities has pencilled in lower than the consensus retail inflation for the current fiscal year at 5 per cent, but higher than the previous forecast of 4.7 per cent. Stating that the June print will be critical for the future trajectory -- after the extremely high 6.3 per cent print in May, the brokerage in a report on Friday revised upwards its forecast by 30 bps to an yearly average of 5 per cent for the year to March 2022. "Though the June print will be critical for future trajectory, beyond near-term, we find some comfort from our analysis of four key factors that are likely to influence CPI inflation the most.
A European cargo airline has moved the National Company Law Tribunal seeking expeditious acquisition of three Jet Airways B777-300 aircraft. The application is by a Malta-based Ace Aviation VIII Limited, which emerged as a successful bidder in the auction of three Boeing 777-300ER aircraft. The firm is part of a Belgium-based cargo airline and its application will be heard on Wednesday.
Given the tight control on expenditure the finance minister has exercised and how niggardly the increases have been on flagship programmes - Bharat Nirman has risen from Rs 32,473 crore (Rs 324.73 billion) to Rs 35,953 crore (Rs 359.53 billion) and employment guarantee from Rs 39,100 crore (Rs 391 billion) to Rs 40,100 crore (Rs 401 billion) - it's natural to wonder whether the deficit reduction targets are for real.
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Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
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Australia legend Ricky Ponting believes frequent changes in his batting order is responsible for Virat Kohli's prolong lean patch and fears if omitted from the T20 World Cup squad, the star batter might find it difficult to regain his place.
By 2025, Uber projects that 25,000-30,000 cars -- or 12 to 16 per cent of vehicle additions -- would be EVs, reports Surajeet Das Gupta.
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Inflation to peak in the current quarter within tolerance band, moderating in the second half of next fiscal, says central bank.
'India's specific concerns about whether Russia will be a reliable defense supplier and diplomatic partner in the event of heightened hostilities with China has undoubtedly accelerated the process of US-India defense and intelligence cooperation intended to support Indian military positions along the Line of Actual Control.'
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
If you're not comfortable with the idea of period sex, there are other ways to be intimate with your partner, such as cuddling or kissing, suggests gynaecologist Dr Archana Dhawan Bajaj.
The ASI also said the fundamental right of the applicant cannot be availed in violation of the existing status of the land.
The dreary, cold months from December to February may prove to be the undoing of many a nation as they grapple with sky-high fuel prices - a result of the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Many - Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China - will still pull through on the strength of their wealth or because of strong storage infrastructure. But India will have its back to the wall. Signs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rates hitting new records this winter are already evident.
The Centre is staring at a combined shortfall of up to Rs 1 trillion in excise and Customs revenues in the current financial year (FY23) compared to the Budget estimates (BE), mainly because of duty cuts on edible oil and petroleum products. The government set a target of Rs 3.35 trillion for excise and Rs 2.13 trillion for Customs mop-up for FY23 while presenting the Budget in February. "As excise duty collection is mainly driven by diesel volumes, we might see a clear gap in the level budgeted for FY23, following the reduction in cesses on petrol and diesel in May. We are expecting somewhere between Rs 80,000 crore and Rs 1 trillion dip in excise and customs duty collections," a senior government official told Business Standard.
The bull run in the Indian equity markets is intact, said analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent note. They expect the S&P BSE Sensex to hit 80,000 levels by December 2023 in their bull-case scenario, to which they have assigned a 30 per cent probability. From the current level, this translates into an upside of nearly 29 per cent.
With India set to host the ODI World Cup later this year, head coach Rahul Dravid said the team was trying out all possible combinations.
You'll need an extra pair of eyes for the content flood on OTT this week.
Just be transparent about what you have been doing in the past year and support your statements with the growth numbers because that's what managers are interested in, advises Varun Sachdeva.
'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
'The correction could take two to three months and traders need to be careful.' 'For investors, this could be a good time to nibble in.'
